关键词： 旅游城镇化, 社会治理, 协同发展：趋势预测, 张家界市

Abstract: Using the coupling coordination model,center of gravity-standard deviation ellipse,spatial trend surface and modified grey Markov prediction model,this paper studies the spatial and temporal pattern and trend prediction of the coordinated development of tourism urbanization and social governance in Zhangjiajie city from 2009 to 2020.The followings are results we found.(1) The level of tourism urbanization in Zhangjiajie city first increased and then decreased from 2009 to 2020,while the comprehensive development level of social governance showed a small fluctuation,and the growth rate was relatively weak,which followed the development of tourism urbanization.(2) The degree of coupling coordination between tourism urbanization and social governance showed an upward trend at first and then a downward trend,and experienced a coupling type transformation process of general imbalance,bare coordination,primary coordination,good coordination and primary coordination,with obvious characteristics of advanced tourism urbanization.From the perspective of spatial differentiation,the coupling coordination degree between tourism urbanization and social governance firstly expands and then contracts in the east-west and north-south directions,showing the development trend of gathering in Wulingyuan District.(3) The obstacle degree of tourism urbanization system is less than that of social governance system.From the average index obstacle degree,the proportion of output value of tertiary industry,the proportion of employed population in tertiary industry,the proportion of tourism income to GDP,the number of tourists,and the traffic accident mortality per 10,000 people shows a declining order.(4) In the next ten years,the coupling coordination degree between tourism urbanization and social governance in Zhangjiajie City will continue to rise,but it will decline in 2026,and finally it will be in the stage of high-quality coupling coordination in 2028.

Key words: tourism urbanization, social governance, collaborative development, trend prediction, Zhangjiajie city