绿色发展政策能够促进就业显著增加吗？——基于中国284个城市面板数据的实证分析

doi:10.13438/j.cnki.jdxb.2023.03.004

摘要/Abstract

摘要：利用2003—2018年我国284个地级市数据，运用双重差分模型和中介效应模型实证分析绿色发展政策对就业的影响及作用机制。研究表明：相对于非试点城市，低碳试点城市建设更利于实现充分就业，进一步考虑内生性问题以及替换因变量后，低碳城市试点政策对就业的促进作用依然稳健；控制时间效应后发现绿色发展政策对就业的促进作用不具有时滞性但具有持续性；绿色发展政策对就业的影响存在异质性，相对于东西部地区，绿色发展政策对中部地区城市就业的促进作用更大；相对于资源型城市，绿色发展政策对非资源型城市就业的促进作用更显著；作用机制的检验结果表明，绿色发展政策会诱发技术创新，通过提升创新水平产生就业“扩充效应”。本研究从低碳城市试点视角评估了绿色发展政策对城市就业的影响效应，为进一步推广低碳城市试点、协调好环境保护和经济发展的关系提供了重要参考。

关键词： 绿色发展政策, 低碳城市试点, 就业, 双重差分模型, 技术创新

Abstract: Based on the data of 284 prefecture-level cities in China from 2003 to 2018，this paper empirically examines the impact and the mechanism of green development policy on employment by using the difference-in-difference model and the mediation effect model.The results demonstrate that:compared with non-pilot cities,the construction of low-carbon pilot cities is more conductive to full employment,and after further consideration of endogeneity issues and replacing the dependent variable,the contribution to employment made by low carbon city pilot policy remains robust;after controlling the time effect,the promoting effect that green development policy acts on employment is not time-delayed but persistent.Heterogeneity exists in the impact of green development policy on employment.Compared with western and eastern regions,green development policy has a greater role in promoting employment in cities in the central region;and compared with resource-based cities,green development policy has a more significant role in promoting employment in non-resource-based cities.The results of the mechanism test show that green development policy can induce technical innovation,and thus produces "expansion effect" of employment by promoting the level of innovation.This study analyses the effects of green development policies on urban employment from the perspective of low-carbon city pilot,providing an important reference for further promotion of low-carbon city pilot and the reconciliation of environmental protection and economic development.

Key words: green development policy, pilot projects for low-carbon cities, employment, difference-in-difference model, technical innovation

何雄浪, 史世姣. 绿色发展政策能够促进就业显著增加吗？——基于中国284个城市面板数据的实证分析[J]. 吉首大学学报（社会科学版）, 2023, 44(3): 34-46.

HE Xionglang, SHI Shijiao. Can Green Development Policies Promote a Significant Increase in Employment?—Empirical Analysis Based on Panel Data of 284 Cities in China[J]. Journal of Jishou University(Social Sciences Edition), 2023, 44(3): 34-46.

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