Abstract: Since 1978,the major economic indicators of China’s tourism industry have increased rapidly,such as domestic tourism receipts,international tourism receipts,domestic travelers,visitor arrivals and visitor arrivals staying overnight.According to ARMA model,the economic crisis in 2008 will not change the long-term growth trend of China’s tourism industry,which will develop rapidly from 2011 to 2015,and the development perspective for the year 2020 may come true in the year 2015.

Key words: tourism industry, ARMA model, growth trend