Determination and Dynamic Analysis of the Influencing Factors of Rural Residents’ Tourism Demand：Based on the MTV Model and the State Space Model

doi:10.13438/j.cnki.jdxb.2016.04.002

Abstract

Abstract:

The improvement of rural residents’ tourism demand is an important way to expand domestic demand and stimulate economic growth.As a focus of scholars’ research,the previous study of rural residents’ tourism demand was restricted by strong subjective variable selection and static analysis of influencing factors.In this paper,multivariate time series variance component (MTV) model is used to identify the significant factors that influence the rural residents’ tourism demand——per capita net income of rural households,tourism prices,and the number of natural or cultural heritage of the world.Then a state space model of time varying parameters is established,studying the influence of the per capita net income of rural residents,tourism prices,and the number of the world natural or cultural heritage on the rural tourism demand at various time points.The results show that the positive effect of income and tourism price on tourism demand is gradually decreasing,and the positive effect of tourism resources on tourism demand is gradually increasing.

Key words: rural residents&rsquo, tourism demand;influencing factors;dynamic analysis;MTV model;state space model

YANG Lixun，LI Ruijie. Determination and Dynamic Analysis of the Influencing Factors of Rural Residents’ Tourism Demand：Based on the MTV Model and the State Space Model[J]. Journal of Jishou University（Social Sciences）, DOI: 10.13438/j.cnki.jdxb.2016.04.002.

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