关键词： 间断-平衡理论, 未成年人保护政策, 注意力, 路径依赖

Abstract: Punctuated-equilibrium theory is widely used by western scholars to study policy-making and policy-change patterns,analyzing the combination of long-term gradual equilibrium and short-term discontinuous mutation of policy change.The research group analyzed the changes of China's minor protection policy since 1978 by using the punctuated-equilibrium theory.It is found that it has gone through five stages:policy balance period (1978-1985),policy break period (1986-1999),policy balance period (2000-2005),policy break period (2006-2012),and policy balance period (2013-present),showing a clear punctuated-equilibrium development.On the basis of China's stable political system and limited rational decision-making model,the replacement of macro-political leaders,the influence of public opinion,the focus of minor cases and the mobilization of "outsiders" are the triggers of the attention transfer of the decision-making system.The change of policy picture,the transfer of attention and the path dependence of policy makers can effectively promote the establishment and collapse of policy monopoly.Finally,it forms the punctuated-equilibrium change of the protection policy of minors.The punctuated-equilibrium theory still has theoretical limitations in explaining China's public policy issues,which should be revised reasonably so as to effectively explain the law and motivation of China's public policy changes.

Key words: punctuated-equilibrium, minor protection policy, attention, path dependence