长期贸易顺差的经济风险分析——以中美贸易顺差为例

吉首大学学报（社会科学版） ›› 2010, Vol. 31 ›› Issue (5): 100-102.

长期贸易顺差的经济风险分析——以中美贸易顺差为例

（1.湖南人文科技学院学报编辑部，湖南娄底 417001;2.中南大学经济管理系，湖南长沙 410083）

出版日期:2010-09-15 发布日期:2012-03-16
作者简介:曾汉生(1964-),男，湖南新邵人，硕士，湖南人文科技学院学报编辑部讲师。姜江（1984-），男，湖南邵东人，中南大学经济管理学博士生。

Analysis on China's Economic Risk of Long-term Trade Surplus——A Case Study of Sino-US Trade Surplus

（1.Journal Editorial Board,Hunan Institute of Humanities,Science and Technology,Loudi,Hunan 417001,China;2.Department of Economic Management,Central South University,Changsha,Hunan 410083,China）

Online:2010-09-15 Published:2012-03-16

摘要/Abstract

摘要：中国对他国之间的贸易短中期可保持顺差，但不可长期为之，否则会使中国陷入用真金白银（企业产品）换外国纸币（或称纸上财富）的荒唐贸易游戏之中。而且长期贸易顺差会带来本国货币超发、输入型通胀和资产价格泡沫化、隐性产能过剩显性化、GDP泡沫化、子孙后代生存空间被压缩、外汇储蓄缩水及本国财富遭掠夺等风险。

关键词： 长期贸易顺差, 中国经济, 风险分析

Abstract: It’s reasonable for China to keep foreign trade surplus in a short and medium term,but the long-term trade surplus may trap China into the ridiculous trade game of changing hard cash (enterprise products) into foreign currency (or paper wealth).Moreover,the long-term trade surplus will lead to risks such as overissuing of domestic currency,input inflation and frothing of property price,dominance of recessive over capacity,frothing of GDP,compressing of posterity’s living space,shrinking of foreign exchange savings deposit and suffering from plundering of national wealth.

Key words: long-term trade surplus, China's economy, risk analysis

曾汉生, 姜江. 长期贸易顺差的经济风险分析——以中美贸易顺差为例[J]. 吉首大学学报（社会科学版）, 2010, 31(5): 100-102.

ZENG Han-Sheng, JIANG Jiang. Analysis on China's Economic Risk of Long-term Trade Surplus——A Case Study of Sino-US Trade Surplus[J]. Journal of Jishou University（Social Sciences）, 2010, 31(5): 100-102.