城镇职工基本养老保险基金征缴效率——基于动态面板门槛模型的研究

doi:10.13438/j.cnki.jdxb.2023.02.003

摘要/Abstract

摘要：采用2010—2015年全国31个省区市城镇职工基本养老保险基金征缴统计数据，运用动态面板门槛模型考察地区制度赡养率对养老保险基金征缴效率的影响。研究发现，地区制度赡养率与养老保险基金征缴效率之间存在倒“U”型曲线关系，并且存在单一的门槛值。当制度赡养率低于该数值时，地方政府会主动承担弥补养老保险基金缺口的主体责任；当制度赡养率高于该数值时，地方政府会将弥补养老保险基金缺口的主体责任转嫁给中央政府，从而削弱养老保险基金的征缴效率。在替换被解释变量及运用工具变量法等稳健性检验之后，该结论依然成立。此结论为我国城镇职工基本养老保险基金征缴效率低下的现象提供了一种新的解释，强调地方政府在协同征缴与监管中的重要作用。

关键词： 养老保险基金, 制度赡养率, 征缴效率, 系统GMM, 动态面板门槛模型

Abstract: Using the statistical data of the collection of basic endowment insurance funds for urban employees in 31 provinces in China from 2010 to 2015,this paper empirically investigates the impact of regional institutional alimony rate on the collection efficiency of endowment insurance funds by using the dynamic panel threshold model.It is found that there is an inverted "U" curve relationship between the regional institutional alimony rate and the collection efficiency of endowment insurance funds,and that there is a single threshold value.When the institutional alimony rate is lower than this value,the local government will take the initiative to bear the main responsibility for making up the gap of the endowment insurance fund,and when the institutional alimony rate exceeds this value,the local government will transfer the main responsibility for making up the gap of the endowment insurance fund to the central government,thus weakening the collection efficiency of the endowment insurance fund.After the robustness tests such as replacing the explained variable and using instrumental variable method,this conclusion is still valid.The study offers a new explanation for the inefficient collection to the basic endowment insurance funds for urban employees in China,emphasizing the important role of local governments in collaborative collection and supervision.

Key words: endowment insurance fund;institutional alimony rate;collection , efficiency;system GMM method;dynamic panel threshold model

龙朝阳, 梁扬扬. 城镇职工基本养老保险基金征缴效率——基于动态面板门槛模型的研究[J]. 吉首大学学报（社会科学版）, 2023, 44(2): 19-30.

LONG Zhaoyang, LIANG Yangyang. Collection Efficiency of Basic Endowment Insurance Funds for Urban Employees:A Study Based on Dynamic Panel Threshold Model[J]. Journal of Jishou University(Social Sciences Edition), 2023, 44(2): 19-30.

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