县（市）改区会导致产业同构吗?——基于杭、甬、宁、苏的实证研究

doi:10.13438/j.cnki.jdxb.2023.06.004

摘要/Abstract

摘要：行政区划和产业结构是影响城市可持续发展的重要因素。由于产业结构变动受到政治、经济等多重因素的影响，县（市）改区柔化城市内部区划边界后，可能导致各市辖区的产业同构，也可能加深产业分工。本研究选取杭州、宁波、南京、苏州作为研究对象，利用其下辖区（县、市）1999年至2019年的面板数据，采用双重差分法（DID），探索县（市）改区对产业结构的影响及其机制。结果显示：县（市）改区在总体上没有对产业同构产生显著影响；在时间效应方面，县（市）改区对产业同构的影响存在8年滞后期；这一影响具有异质性，只有杭州的县（市）改区对产业同构产生了显著正向影响。对案例进行微观考察，发现异质性分析的结果与各城市产业布局的实践逻辑一致。机制分析认为，政府行为与市场机制共同影响了产业同构程度。侧重布局第二产业且出现产业转移，易走向与主城区的产业分工；侧重布局第三产业且出现产业扩散，则易走向与主城区的产业同构。本研究丰富和拓展了行政区划与产业结构关系的经验证据，能为县（市）改区提供新的观察视角和实践启示，也为城市产业布局提供新的理论认知和政策方案。

关键词： 县（市）改区, 产业结构, 产业同构, 产业分工

Abstract: Administrative division and industrial structure are important factors affecting the sustainable development of cities.As changes in industrial structure are influenced by multiple factors,including the political and economic ones,there-designation of counties (cities of county-level) as city districts may lead to industrial isomorphism,or deepen the industrial division in the administrative districts.This paper,selecting Hangzhou,Ningbo,Nanjing,and Suzhou as the research object,using the panel data of their districts (counties and cities of county-level) from 1999 to 2019,and adopting the difference-in-differences (DID) method,explores the impact of the re-designation of counties (cities of county-level) as city districts on industrial structure and its mechanism.The results show that it has no significant effect on the industrial isomorphism in both tertiary industry and sub-industries,and according to the test results of time effect,there is a lag period of 8 years on industrial isomorphism.This effect is heterogeneous,and the significant positive effect on industrial isomorphism is found only in Hangzhou.Upon close examination of the cases,the heterogeneity analysis aligns with the industrial layout of the cities.Mechanism analysis suggests that government actions and market mechanisms jointly affect the degree of industrial isomorphism.If the municipal government focuses on the development of secondary industry and industrial transfer occurs,the industrial structure of the main urban area and the newly established districts will tend to move towards industrial division,and if the municipal government focuses on the development of tertiary industry and industrial diffusion occurs,it will tend to move towards industrial isomorphism.This research enriches the empirical evidence concerning the relationship between administrative divisions and industrial structures,hoping to provide fresh perspectives and practical insights for the re-designation of counties (cities of county-level) as city districts,as well as new theoretical perceptions and policy options for urban industrial layouts.

Key words: the re-designation of counties (cities of county-level) as city districts, industrial structure, industrial isomorphism, industrial division

吴金群, 毛家楠. 县（市）改区会导致产业同构吗?——基于杭、甬、宁、苏的实证研究[J]. 吉首大学学报（社会科学版）, 2023, 44(6): 46-60.

WU Jinqun, MAO Jianan. Will the Re-designation of Counties (Cities of County-level) as City Districts Lead to Industrial Isomorphism? —An Empirical Study Based on the Data from Hangzhou,Ningbo,Nanjing and Suzhou[J]. Journal of Jishou University(Social Sciences Edition), 2023, 44(6): 46-60.

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