德尔菲神谕：模糊性、制度和多源流

doi:10.13438/j.cnki.jdxb.2017.01.004

摘要/Abstract

摘要：“多源流理论”作为西方公共政策过程分析中广泛应用的工具，缺乏制度因素的考量已是不争的事实，因此，将制度因素融入多源流框架是十分有必要的。制度通过倡导价值等方式促进或限制决策，而模糊性引起制度理解上的多样化，模糊性程度和政策执行内容的双重作用又形塑政策变迁的方式。同时，政策企业家的行动策略对政策执行有重要影响，具体表现为：由于个人特质和操作技术方面存在差异，制度和行动者策略会影响到决策者的注意力、方案选择乃至政策产出。尽管制度变量没有改变多源流理论的内在逻辑，但是制度因素对多源流理论产生的影响是未来公共政策研究的一个方向。

关键词： 模糊性, 多源流, 制度因素, 政策企业家, 政策变迁

Abstract: Multiple streams theory is used widely in western public policy analysis as a tool，which lacks consideration of institutional factor has been an unquestioned fact.It is necessary to blend institutional factor into multiple streams framework.Institution enable or constrain policy-making through initiating values，ambiguity causes diversification of institution，and double influence of ambiguity’s degree and content of policy implementation shapes the way of policy change.Meanwhile，policy entrepreneur’s action strategy plays an important role in policy implementation.Institution and actor’s strategy affect attention of decision maker as well as alternative adoption and policy outputs due to personal characteristics and manipulation strategies.Institution variable doesn’t change internal logic of multiple streams theory，but the effect of institutional factor to the theory is a research direction of public policy in the future.

Key words: ambiguity；multiple streams, institutions；policy entrepreneur, policy change

[美]尼古拉斯·扎哈里尔迪斯/著，杨志军，欧阳文忠/译. 德尔菲神谕：模糊性、制度和多源流[J]. 吉首大学学报（社会科学版）, DOI: 10.13438/j.cnki.jdxb.2017.01.004.

Nikolaos Zahariadis;YANG Zhijun，OUYANG Wenzhong. Delphic Oracles:Ambiguity,Institutions,and Multiple Streams [J]. Journal of Jishou University（Social Sciences）, DOI: 10.13438/j.cnki.jdxb.2017.01.004.

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