Abstract: It’s reasonable for China to keep foreign trade surplus in a short and medium term,but the long-term trade surplus may trap China into the ridiculous trade game of changing hard cash (enterprise products) into foreign currency (or paper wealth).Moreover,the long-term trade surplus will lead to risks such as overissuing of domestic currency,input inflation and frothing of property price,dominance of recessive over capacity,frothing of GDP,compressing of posterity’s living space,shrinking of foreign exchange savings deposit and suffering from plundering of national wealth.

Key words: long-term trade surplus, China's economy, risk analysis